Given today is St Patricks Day, it is a good time to consider the part that good fortune plays in financial matters in comparison to well researched hard data and scientific modelling.

Computer Algorithms are responsible for much of the prediction based world we now reside in.

So, is it the forecasters who have it right, predicting the next financial trend and where the smart money should go?

Or, could it be the herd mentality that has us all following the Bellwether lead sheep in the flock and thus the financial prophecy fullfils the predicted outcome.

Or, is it shear good or mis fortune that sets the record straight??

 

Speaking of Wether’s but now Weather, which is always of interest to everybody, how well does the mathematical modelling perform to see your family picnic survive without a drenching or heatstroke.

All the scientific modelling available can still not get it right. But Why?

Enter the “variable”. Forecasts work on the basis of probability not certainty!

The variable cannot be predicted, because it is in a constant state of flux and remains an unknown quantity.

(Much like the Australian political landscape, although it would be better placed in one of the outer rings of Ashtons Circus).

Financial Markets behave much like the Weather, being largely unpredictable.

Now to combine further maths to the equation VARIABLE + HUMAN NATURE (not the boy band)

= UNKNOWN RESULT

There is right now a great deal of speculation in regards to interest rate movements, over borrowing, capital city property prices, auction clearance rates and a looming change in the real estate scene.

The United States, China and other world economies and events also have an enormous influence on the financial markets in Australia.

The forecasters are out in force predicting what will happen next. The reality is no-one really knows.

The Global World Economy is a new entity in iteslf and does not have any accurate “computer modelling” or algorithm that can be relied upon.

 

So in the meantime, whilst the financial market gurus are filling their columns with doomsday predictions, I would simply recommend taking a sensibly balanced and cautious approach to your investments and,

Lift a Glass of Guinness to the Irish!

 

After all, the luck of a cheeky Leprechaun may be all that is required!

(What was his name anyway??     Dan Murphy ??              …… I will check my algorithm )

Drew Oliver

Regional & Rural Realty